Monday, March 26, 2012

Thailand's PAD rally against Thaksin, Hun Sen kicks off in Bangkok

BANGKOK, Nov. 15 (Xinhua) -- The People's Alliance for Democracy's (PAD) protest against ousted former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen kicked off on Sunday in Thailand's capital Bangkok.

The PAD protesters or the yellow-shirted people officially started their protest at Sanam Luang in the center of capital Bangkok from 04:00 p.m. local time.

The rally was occurring after Thailand and Cambodia have downgraded their diplomatic relations due to conflict over an appointment of Thaksin as an economic advisor to Cambodia's government and Hun Sen on Nov. 4.

A day after the appointment of Thaksin, the Cambodian government announced recall of its ambassador to Thailand in a move to respond to the Thai government's recall of its ambassador to Cambodia.

Thaksin Shinawatra: Cambodia’s advisor par excellence?

Op-Ed by Khmerization


“Mr. Thaksin, due to his business success and his wealth of economic knowledge, could be Cambodia’s advisor par excellence if he is not a fugitive of the Thai government. However, under the political climate and his fugitive status, he is advisor non par excellence.”



In have opined and editorialised in the past that I see no benefits in the appointment of Mr. Thaksin as Cambodian government’s advisor, beside to irk and to irritate Thailand. Mr. Thaksin would not be able to entice billions of dollars of trades and investments to Cambodia.

In fact, his lecture delivered in Phnom Penh on Thursday the 12th of November has proved just that. His advice had turned out to be not a magic wand for Cambodia’s current economic woes. It was just another seminar and lecture given by a person of high calibre. The seminar failed to attract a single cent of investment to Cambodia. And even Mr. Thaksin himself refused to commit to an investment project in the casino complex in Koh Kong he agreed earlier with Mr. Hun Sen because he is distrustful of Mr. Hun Sen and foresees the political uncertainty and instability his appointment could bring to bear. Mr. Thaksin’s lecture and seminar, if anything at all, is just a simple lecture and seminar by an “economic expert” that Mr. Thaksin is portrayed and purported to be. It has nothing to do with his economic advice to the Cambodian government, but more to do with his political speech. In fact, the seminar has been used as a forum to deliver his political condemnations of the present Abhisit government, which he accused of stoking “false patriotism”.

In perspective, one would like to think that Mr. Hun Sen had opted to gamble away Cambodia’s good relations with the Thai government by risking Cambodia’s larger national interests for the trouble that Mr. Thaksin’s appointment would bring. Mr Hun Sen’s decision to choose personal interests over national interests is beyond anyone’s imagination and comprehension. Mr. Hun Sen might have foreseen that Mr. Thaksin has the support of the majority of the Thai people and eventually he could be returned to government at the next elections. Mr. Hun Sen’s calculated risks or miscalculations with Mr. Thaksin could be a recipe for irreparable damages to Cambodia’s national interests and good relations with future Thai governments.

Cambodia’s association with Mr. Thaksin under the current political environment is a big risk and a recipe for disaster that Mr. Hun Sen should not gamble with. If Mr. Hun Sen thinks that by appointing his “eternal friend” as his advisor will help him gain power in Thailand, then he is wrong. Opinion polls show that Mr. Thaksin’s popularity rating after his appointment has plunged abysmally and Mr. Abhisit’s popularity rating has tripled. The majority of Thai people are against him now, especially after he allegedly said in the interview with the British Times newspaper about the Thai monarchy’s interferences in Thai politics. This remark is considered a lese-majeste offence under Thai laws that carries severe penalty.

Mr. Thaksin’s perceived return to government is a remote possibility. He is fighting an uphill political battle. All the Thai Establishments- the Army, the Court, the bureaucracy and, most importantly, the revered Monarchy, are all against him and are working hard to make sure that he is kept at bay. His acceptance of Mr. Hun Sen’s appointment could be his last straw and his political endgame. His trouble with the revered monarch, who is quietly working behind the scene to end his political life, could spearhead and precipitate his downfall.

However, assume hypothetically that Mr. Thaksin will return to power one day in Thailand. Mr. Hun Sen should not expect the future “Thaksin government” to be more sympathetic to Cambodia’s border woes either. Mr. Hun Sen should know very well that it was Mr. Thaksin’s proxy, the Samak-Nappodon government which sent Thai troops to invade Preah Vihear on 15th July 2008. And the first armed conflict on 15th October 2008 between Khmer and Thai troops happened when Mr. Somchai Wongsawath, who is Mr. Thaksin’s brother-in-law, was the Prime Minister of Thailand. Above all, the burning of Thai embassy in Phnom Penh in 2003 happened during the prime ministership of Mr. Thaksin.

Mr. Hun Sen is knowingly or unknowingly using Thaksin as a Trojan horse to re-gain political influence in Thailand, but he must be mindful that Mr. Thaksin could be a Pandora’s box that could unleash evils and social ills into Cambodian society. While Cambodia’s Finance Minister Keat Chhon hoped that Mr. Thaksin’s appointment could help spearhead Thaksinomics -Thaksin’s economic policy of rural self-sufficiency - in Cambodia, Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya fears the appointment could help import Thaksinocracy - Thaksin’s corrupt style of rule - into the already corrupt Cambodian bureaucracy.

Hun Sen’s support for the revitalisation of Mr. Thaksin’s political comeback, as far as the Thai Establishments is concerned, is a lost cause. As such, Mr. Hun Sen’s association with Mr. Thaksin against the will of the present Thai government is a gamble and a recipe for potential disastrous armed and diplomatic conflict with present and future Thai governments.

In hindsight, all Cambodians from all political persuasions should look back and ask, is Mr. Thaksin’s appointment worth the trouble that it has brought to Cambodian and Thai relations? With the escalated and worsened diplomatic row caused by his appointment, that Cambodia should better do without, we all should realise by now that Mr. Thaksin’s appointment is not at the best interests of Cambodia and the Cambodian people. His appointment has degenerated and culminated into the downgrade of diplomatic ties, annulments of border agreements and the halt of economic aid by Thailand. And now the row reached boiling point after the arrest for espionage of an alleged Thai spy that led to more expulsions of diplomats from both countries.

While the present Thai government is doing its best to trample and demonise Cambodia through its arrogant diplomatic gestures as well as its military superiority, Mr. Hun Sen should sometimes swallow his pride, close his eyes and apply cool diplomacy for the sake of Cambodia’s national interests. The wild-mannered behaviours that have been displayed by Mr. Hun Sen so far have not helped Cambodia’s cause and is a bad publicity coup that Cambodia could do without. These sorts of crude diplomacy can undoubtedly tarnish Cambodia’s international image that makes Cambodians look like the bellicose and belligerent people in the eyes of the world.

To conclude this editorial, may I say that, Mr. Thaksin, due to his business success and his wealth of economic knowledge, could be Cambodia’s advisor par excellence if he is not a fugitive of the Thai government. However, under the political climate and his fugitive status, he is advisor non par excellence.

Click to Read More...

Posted by Khmerization

Miss Cambodia Landmine 2009 to boost self esteem

By Men Kimseng, VOA Khmer
Original report from Washington



Cambodian community in Norway will organize a beauty contest for landmine victims on Saturday after failing to organize it in Cambodia.

The event, organized in collaboration with the Association of Cambodians in Norway and the Khmer Buddhist Council in Norway, will also feature Khmer traditional dance and food display.

There are 20 landmine victims taking part in the contest, but since no contestant is able to travel to Norway, organizers will ask volunteers there to dress up as beauty queens and carry photos of the contestants. A winner will then be selected by potentially more than 300 participants.

“We want to show [people of the world] that our society doesn’t need a war and landmines to kill more people. We want to live in peace,” said Men Nath, one of the main organizers. “Another positive point that our program wishes to show is that every individual has equal value and once a person is disabled, how would he/she live if we don’t value them”.

Contestants, aged between 18 and 48, are from many of Cambodia’s provinces like Siem Reap, Kampong Speu, Battambang, Kampong Thom, Kampot, Svay Rieng, and Sihanoukville.

“The reason why I take part in the contest is to seek an equal right and call for an end to discrimination [against disabled people],” Song Kosal, 25-year-old contestant from Battambang province, told VOA Khmer by phone.

“Though we are disabled women, we have our beauty to compete and to show people around the world. We have the rights to tell our own story to all people; and the beauty is not the physical appearance, but our pure heart,” she said.

Song Kosal, who lost her right leg to a landmine 20 years ago, hopes that country that has not yet taken action to ban landmine will change their mind after they see the disabled women.

The contest was initially planned for August in Cambodia, but was not allowed on the grounds that it will be a “mockery” at the victims.

But, the organizers disagree.

“This project is very beneficial for the self esteem of the people taking part since they are being looked upon as beautiful and they are allowed or they should be allowed to present themselves as the beauty queens that they all are each in their own way,” said Morten Traavik, program leader of Miss Landmine Cambodia. “As for Cambodia and Cambodian government as a whole it would be given a signal that the government really cares about its own disabled citizens and let them present themselves as they themselves see fit”.

Thailand's PAD rally against Thaksin, Hun Sen kicks off in Bangkok

BANGKOK, Nov. 15 (Xinhua) -- The People's Alliance for Democracy's (PAD) protest against ousted former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen kicked off on Sunday in Thailand's capital Bangkok.

By 18:30 p.m. local time, over 10,000 PAD protesters or the yellow-shirted people were rallying at Sanam Luang in the center of capital Bangkok after they officially started their protest from 04:00 p.m. local time.

The PAD rally, which was participated by the supporters from both Bangkok and many provinces across the country, was occurring after Thailand and Cambodia have downgraded their diplomatic relations due to conflict over an appointment of Thaksin as an economic advisor to Cambodia's government and Hun Sen on Nov. 4.

More PAD protesters are arriving at the rally site, the PAD staff announced on the rally stage. The PAD supporters range from the general public, students, employees of state enterprises, war veteran members to taxi drivers.

They were announcing that they were uniting to show the world the Thai people's strength and to protect the country's dignity against Cambodia and Thaksin.

A day after the appointment of Thaksin, the Cambodian government announced recall of its ambassador to Thailand in a move to respond to the Thai government's recall of its ambassador to Cambodia.

Moreover, on Nov. 11 Cambodia refused to extradite Thaksin to Thailand after Thailand officially submitted a letter asking Cambodia to extradite Thaksin.

Thailand's government will continue issuing measures to pressure Cambodia's appointment of Thaksin, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva disclosed Friday.

The weekly cabinet on this Tuesday will discuss about the possible measures and also review bilateral projects with Cambodia.

Also, the cabinet will discuss to suspend loan worth of 1.4 billion baht (42.02 million U.S. dollars) planned for Cambodia.

About 1,500 police staff were deployed to ensure law and order around the rally site.

Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said Sunday the government has not imposed the Internal Security Act (ISA) during the PAD rally since there was no sign of violence to occur, Thai News Agency reported.

Also, Suthep denied reports, which said the government took its people to join the PAD rally as he said "the government wouldn't do this."

In a related development, Thailand's Acting Police Chief, Police General Pateep Tanprasert echoed Suthep's statement saying that he was not reported about a third hand, who was feared to incite violence.

Police General Pateep said he has ordered his policemen to closely monitor the rally situation and areas surrounding the rally site.

The PAD core leaders earlier announced that the rally will not prolong as the PAD demonstrators will disperse peacefully at about23:00 p.m. local time.

Thaksin was ousted by the military coup in September 2006, in accusation of corruption, and has been kept in exile since then.

He returned to Thailand in February 2008 to face corruption charges, but he later fled into exile again and was convicted in absentia.
Editor: Wang Guanqun

Cambodian AIDS orphans have good plans for future

By Zhang Ruiling

PHNOM PENH, Nov. 16 (Xinhua) -- They are a hidden population, living with HIV/AIDS at a very young age. What we do know is that they are very vulnerable. It is this state of being hidden that puts AIDS orphans at special risk during their lifetime.

But those living with HIV in Cambodia are lucky. They live in the National Borey for Infants and Children, a state-run orphanage located in the suburb of the capital city Phnom Penh, which is supported by the government and humanitarian agencies.

"The center accommodates more than 100 orphans, among them 27 are living with HIV, and Sei La is one of them," Sani, a teacher at the center, told Xinhua while pointing at the boy who was orphaned at an early age when his parents died of AIDS.

Sei La is a typical Khmer boy with brown skin. He looks happy and healthy. He said he had just returned from school.

"How old are you, Sei La? Do you know China?" we asked.

"I am 15 years old now. I know China, it's a big country with a lot of people," Sei La answered with a shy smile.

"I am happy here. I have friends here and the teachers treat us like mothers. I study in the Khmer language school in the morning, and in the afternoon I go to English school," he continued.

"I have been working here for nearly 25 years. I love these poor children, they are just like my own sons and daughters," said Sani. Her warmth for these children is reciprocated, as Sani's proteges respectfully call her "Mama."

Sani told us that Sei La was a clever boy, and that he worked part-time in a small restaurant in the city every Sunday.

"Just clean dirty dishes, set tables, and serve as an assistant," he said.

"The payment is little, just 3,000 riel (about 0.73 U.S. dollars)," he admitted. "I only want to earn some pocket money, so I can buy some snacks and sometimes repair my bicycle, but first of all, I want to gain some experience for seeking a good job in the future."

When talking about the HIV/AIDS disease, Sei La looked calm while replying that he knew he was infected with HIV.

"I was very scared at first and hated my parents, but after I learned about HIV/AIDS, I know if I keep taking pills and do some exercise, the disease can be controlled," he explained.

We have reason to believe that Sei La has already overcome his fear and public prejudice, and learned how to stand on his own two feet.

On the playground, we saw a group of children playing frisbee and some girls playing on the swirls.

"I like here very much," Nani, a five-year-old girl, said while riding a bike in the yard.

Enjoying the sight of little boys and girls giggling and running around, one can hardly imagine that this is an orphanage and that these lovely children are AIDS orphans. At that moment, we gratefully realized that poverty and illness would never prevail over the purity of a child's mind, and that these children's aspirations for living and learning would rise above these impediments.

Mak Phanna, director of the National Borey for Infants and Children of the Department of Child Welfare in the Ministry of Social Affairs, Veteran and Youth Rehabilitation, told us that the Royal Government of Cambodia always paid great attention to children, especially the disabled and orphans infected with HIV. In effect, the government has adopted a law on HIV and AIDS, which went into effect in 2002.

Cambodia diagnosed the first case of HIV in 1993, and HIV prevalence in the country peaked at 3.7 percent in 1997. Chhim Sareth, director of the AIDS Health Foundation, Cambodia Care Organization, said Cambodia had one of the highest rates of HIV/AIDS in the region, but the good news was that the rate was decreasing every year.

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS) estimates that 75,000 Cambodians live with HIV, but the prevalence of the virus among the population halved to 0.9 percent between 1998 and 2006. The measures taken by the government include publicity campaigns and education to raise understanding of HIV/AIDS. Also, a condom campaign, offering free HIV tests, has made some progress.

"It is unfortunate for these children to suffer this illness. However, it is very fortunate for them to have received various assistance. Through much support, these children have attended elementary school without paying any tuition, and have received treatment and medicines free of charge," Phanna said.

We also have high hopes for these children and wish them a happy and healthy life.

Hun Sen defiant on Thaksin role

In Thailand 15,000 People's Alliance for Democracy members rallied over the weekend to denounce convicted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen.

Relations between Cambodia and Thailand hit another low last week after Mr Thaksin began his role as an economic advisor to Prime Minister Hun Sen. It's led to the recall of diplomatic staff by both countries, and a Thai extradition demand for Mr Thaksin, that Cambodia has turned down. Mr Thaksin's begun his new job with a pledge to regenerate the Cambodian economy, saying that will be good for both Cambodia and Thailand. But analysts say all he'll do is to deepen fractured relations between the Asian rivals even further.

Presenter: Matt Conway
Speakers: Hun Sen, Cambodian Prime Minister; Thaksin Shinawatra , forer Thai Prime Minister; Andrew Walker, Senior Fellow at the Department of Political and Social Change with the Australian National University

How smart companies avoid getting burned by wild dollar swings


June 16, 2011: 5:00 AM ET With all the recent turmoil in the global economy, you'd think the chief of any multinational would be reaching for the Pepcid AC right about now. Think again.

By Becky Quick, contributor
FORTUNE -- Currency markets get all riled up about the Greek debt default rumors -- and then rebound! There are concerns about economic declines from Great Britain to Malaysia. Then there's the chaos in commodities, which are priced in dollars -- and the real or imagined impact on money that companies make overseas. With all that turmoil, you might think the chief of any multinational company would be reaching for the Pepcid AC right about now. How the heck do you run a business with all that going on?
But what's surprising is that execs like Doug Oberhelman, the chief executive of Caterpillar (CAT), aren't fazed. "I'm old," jokes the youthful 58-year-old chieftain. In other words: He's seen it all. (He came in, after all, around when the gold standard was abandoned in 1971.) Oberhelman is calm, in large part, because Caterpillar is now a very different company, better prepared to weather currency storms. In the 1970s most of Caterpillar's production was based in the U.S.  It had just two plants in all of Asia. Today it has about 20 plants in Asia, a dozen in China alone. Almost all that production is sold where it is made, which means currency swings don't matter nearly as much to Cat's bottom line. Of course, that also means Cat doesn't ride high when the dollar is weak. "When I joined Cat, with the dollar weak like this, we would have just printed money around here," says Oberhelman.
It's a theme that's been replicated across corporate America, especially for companies that do business overseas. These businesses have moved their manufacturing plants closer to where they sell their goods, a natural hedge against wild swings in price. They are using innovative measures to reduce their reliance on any one particular commodity to keep from getting hamstrung by a sudden increase in price. And they are buckling down and following long-term game plans instead of reacting to every tick in the commodity markets.
Take PepsiCo (PEP), which spends a whopping $18 billion a year on commodities. Commodity prices have become much more volatile over the past five years, so that's why Hugh Johnston stepped up plans to centralize Pepsi's commodity purchases since taking over as the company's chief financial officer some 15 months ago. Under his playbook, roughly 80% of the company's commodity purchases are hedged, on average, for just nine months out. Those purchases are determined by headquarters a year in advance, and local managers can't deviate from those plans without specific authority from Johnston. It means Pepsi may not be able to take advantage of drops in commodity prices—but it doesn't get stung by short-term jumps. And it gives Johnston the ability to forecast what his costs will be for the bulk of the year. "To try to outthink the markets is too difficult, and it's really not the business we're in," he says.
One of the most innovative companies, Procter & Gamble (PG), is relying on good old-fashioned engineering and science to ease its reliance on some commodity markets. In fact, P&G has so much faith in its ability to innovate that it doesn't bother buying short-term hedging contracts on commodities. "The hedge is only good as long as the instrument lasts," says Jon Moeller, P&G's CFO, adding that those derivatives instruments aren't cheap to purchase either. "So if you're not dealing with it on an operational level, you're not dealing with the problem."
Instead, P&G tries to either eliminate materials from its goods—think condensed Tide detergent that comes in smaller packages—or it plays with chemistry to find substitutes for ingredients that face huge price upswings. Example: new packaging for its Pantene hair products that uses biodegradable cornstarch instead of petrochemical resins. "We can trade off without the consumer being able to notice," says Bob ­McDonald, P&G's CEO.
And all those adjustments add up. "Last year we had $2 billion in incremental commodity costs, and we saved our way out of about half of that—$1 billion—so it's the kind of stuff you have to do," says McDonald. And with savings like that, it's exactly the kind of stuff investors will applaud.

There's always a bull market somewhere


June 16, 2011: 1:03 PM ET
chart_ws_stock_healthcareselectsectorspdr.top.pngThe broader market has pulled back on economic fears about the United States and Europe. But drug stocks and utilities have held up relatively well.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- With the overall market riding a six-week losing streak that looks like it will extend to seven, it's tempting to say that the bull market is over. But there's always a bull market somewhere.
As investors grow increasingly nervous about the slowing economy in the United States and the reemergence of debt fears in Greece and the rest of Europe, it looks like a so-called "flight to quality" may be finally taking hold.
paul_lamonica_morning_buzz2.jpg
Consider that over the past few weeks, investors have once again flocked back to U.S. Treasuries. It's amazing to think that U.S. bonds can still be considered attractive.
At the end of the month, the Federal Reserve is set to end the $600 billion bond buying bonanza (yay alliteration!) known as QE2. QE3 is no guarantee yet. And the debt ceiling limit is rapidly approaching as well.
But the 10 Year yield is back below 3% as investors buy bonds. (Rates and prices move in opposite directions.) The 2 Year Treasury is now yielding a piddling 0.24% -- a record low.
Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist with Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia, said that you have put the fiscal challenges in the U.S. in context. Yes, the U.S. is in trouble. But Treasuries are still a "safe haven" when you look at the alternatives.
"Let me ask you this. Would you rather own a U.S. Treasury or a Hellenic Republic Greek bond?" he said. "While the U.S has problems, they are much smaller than those facing Europe."
That line of reasoning is probably why the dollar has strengthened against the euro as of late. Even though Uncle Sam's economy is stinky, it's even stinkier across the pond.

Is the U.S. like Greece?

On the stock side of the coin, so-called defensive companies like consumer staples firms, health care and utilities have held up much better than the broader market.
The S&P 500 (SPX) is down 7% since the market began to slump in late April. But the Health Care Select SPDR ETF (XLV) is off just 1%. Some prominent health care stocks, including Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500), biotech leader Amgen (AMGN, Fortune 500) and pharma giant Eli Lilly (LLY, Fortune 500), are actually up in the past seven weeks.
The Dow Jones Utilities Average (DJU) is also down just 1% in the midst of the market malaise. The fact that health care and utilities have held their ground shouldn't be that big of a surprise.
With bond rates and yields on saving accounts so low, any investor craving a steady dose of income can do much better with a drug stock or electric company.
"Money market balances remain relatively high. But there are still great dividends in utilities and health care stocks," said Dan Greenshields, president of Seattle-based ShareBuilder, the investing subsidiary of online bank ING Direct.
Merck (MRK, Fortune 500), for example, pays a dividend that yields 4.3%. And Duke Energy (DUK, Fortune 500), which will become the nation's largest utility after its merger with Progress Energy (PGN, Fortune 500), yields 5.3%.
While all 30 Dow stocks fell on Wednesday, McDonald's (MCD, Fortune 500) was the smallest loser, down just 0.3%. And rivals Wendy's (WEN) and Yum Brands (YUM, Fortune 500) both rose as the market tanked. Ditto for McDonald's spin-off Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG).
It makes sense if you believe that fast food chains may be considered less economically sensitive since they are a relatively cheap (if not always healthy) way to eat out.
But investors may not have to focus solely on less cyclical companies. There are plenty of large firms that are generating strong profits and trade at attractive valuations.
On days like Wednesday, when the market slides, it is often a great time to buy more of those types of firms, said Eric Schoenstein, co-manager of the Jensen Portfolio (JENSX) in Lake Oswego, Ore. For example, he said his firm recently bought a stake in sporting goods and apparel giant Nike (NKE, Fortune 500).
And some of his fund's top holdings are in riskier areas like tech and finance, such as software developer Adobe (ADBE) and money manager T. Rowe Price (TROW).
"Economic growth in the U.S. and Europe may be anemic," he said. "But there are companies out there still reporting growing sales. That is a good sign."
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Paul R. La Monica. Other than Time Warner, the parent of CNNMoney, and Abbott Laboratories, La Monica does not own positions in any individual stock

Market volatility and China on traders' minds


June 16, 2011: 1:10 PM ET
Pandora MediaThe lack of post-IPO enthusiasm for Internet radio company Pandora has been a popular topic among investors on StockTwits. Click the chart for more data on Pandora.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Talk about the S&P 500 potentially going negative for 2011 was among the top-trending topics on StockTwits on Thursday, a day after the S&P 500 fell about 1.7%..
The S&P 500 was less than 10 points of its 200-day moving average on Thursday -- a key technical marker for any index -- before bouncing off those levels.
Traders speculated if Thursday's gains may be a sign there might be some short-term buyer support in the market. The S&P would be negative for the year if it falls below 1,257.64 and its 200-day moving average is roughly near that level at 1,256.81.
StockTwits users also focused on Goldman Sachs upgrading the Chinese online video site Youku.com to a "conviction buy." The upgrade comes after Youku (YOKU), Renren (RENN) and other China Internet stocks have struggled in the past six months.
Pandora's (P) initial public offering also continues to be popular topic among traders, particularly after the stock has struggled since debuted a day ago. Pandora shares briefly fell below $16 a share, the company's original offering price.

China: Why U.S. investors should steer clear

Here are some of the highlights of Thursday's conversation on StockTwits.
DougKass: today impt day. if market can rally off awful philly fed we have probably made a trading low. that's my bet.
Tiny: I don't think we get a good bounce until at least the 200 day moving average is tested $SPY.
momomiester $YOKU goldman put them on the conviction list. That could solidify the bigger Chinese stocks in general. They all are crushed.
JoeSaluzzi Maybe black t-shirt guy from $P should do some more interviews on tv to try to get his stock price back over its IPO price. To top of page

Report: U.S. bracing for possible downgrade from S&P; Update: “Expecting and preparing”; Update: S&P bungles numbers? Update: Calculations off by trillions


posted at 4:59 pm on August 5, 2011 by Allahpundit
printer-friendly

Just a headline right now at CNBC, but stand by. Business Insider heard a rumor about this before lunch but discounted it when they couldn’t substantiate it with analysts. There must be something to it, though; it’s unthinkable that CNBC would toss this grenade without something very solid to support the story. Needless to say, the fact that news is breaking within an hour after the market closed suggests that they held it back to avoid a panic and to let investors digest it over the weekend.

A downgrade, not a default, was always the real worry during the debt-ceiling saga. Moody’s and Fitch reaffirmed the U.S. as AAA (albeit with a negative outlook) a few days ago but S&P was conspicuously silent. Negotiators on the Hill believed early on that the debt package had to reduce the deficit by $4 trillion to avoid a downgrade, but S&P’s president told a congressional committee on July 27 that it wasn’t true and that some alternate plans would be acceptable.

Updates are coming. While we wait for details, read this NYT piece from last weekend speculating that the economic fallout from a downgrade would actually be modest since, after all, treasuries are still comparatively safer than any other investment. The fact that Moody’s and Fitch disagree with S&P will soften the blow too. And frankly, if there’s anything that can force the Super Committee and Congress to get serious about entitlement reform, this may be it. Or am I just putting lipstick on a very smelly pig? We’ll know soon!

Update: A government source tells Tapper they’re “expecting and preparing” for a downgrade to either AA+ or AA. Unbelievable. Here’s the spin:

Officials reasons given will be the political confusion surrounding the process of raising the debt ceiling, and lack of confidence that the political system will be able to agree to more deficit reduction. A source says Republicans saying that they refuse to accept any tax increases as part of a larger deal will be part of the reason cited.

Of course, of course. Any rather large elephants in the room missing from that litany of excuses? Here’s a hint: It rhymes with “shmentitlements.”

Update: CNBC says the downgrade could come as early as this evening. In spite of everything, I’ve never really believed that America is in decline because, well, America simply doesn’t decline. Tonight I believe it.

Update: Lots of tough talk this week from Democrats about the Super Committee, with Reid hinting that they might walk away if Republicans don’t appoint anyone willing to agree to tax hikes and Pelosi promising much harder hardball during the next round of negotiations. Let’s see what they say now.

Update: Karl from the Greenroom e-mails to remind me that S&P’s track record is a bit of a joke given that they failed to see the subprime crisis coming. True enough. Last week Zachary Karabell at the Daily Beast wondered why anyone cares what S&P thinks:

To those who say that it’s unfair to blame the messenger—and that on the whole, these agencies are simply calling it as they see it and drawing attention to real risks—there is the pesky fact that they have a legacy of either being chronically late (the mortgage crisis) or then too eager to downgrade (overreaction to the mortgage crisis). And even if they were as good as they could be, they are still simply three companies with a few hundred unelected people making calls that drive the entire global financial system.

There is one last glaring question: should these agencies even be rating a sovereign entity such as the United States? The dollar is now a global currency of commerce, and U.S. Treasuries are a form of safe-haven currency. It’s not as if the world is unaware of the economic issues of the U.S. The Chinese don’t need Moody’s to tell them about the risks of holding a trillion dollars of U.S. bonds. Shouldn’t the “creditworthiness” of the United States, or the viability of a European debt plan for Greece, be left to the determination of investors large and small worldwide along with the governments of those countries and their electorates? The success or failure of their plans will be evident soon enough, and subject to the thumbs up or down of the people, without the ratings agencies piling on or offering a view.

Mark Steyn has the counterargument to that:

Nobody in Greece, Portugal, Spain, or Ireland is talking about “out years” and exciting plans for spending cuts in 2020. They’re getting on with it now — and they’re still being downgraded.

By contrast, both U.S. political parties are playing croquet on the lawn in August 1914 — and the ratings agencies are stringing along with them. Whatever the comparisons of debt-to-GDP ratios between Greece, Ireland, and the U.S., the actual hard dollar amount involved here is of an entirely different order. The Boehner plan tells us that real fiscal discipline is impossible within the U.S. political system. At some point, the ratings guys have to call them on it — or render their system meaningless.

Right. What’s ominous about the S&P downgrade isn’t that it comes out of left field, haphazardly, but that it doesn’t. Given the long-term outlook for U.S. sovereign debt even after this week’s deal, why wouldn’t they downgrade us? Why wouldn’t anyone else? What have you seen over the past year that makes you think America’s political class is remotely equal to the task of dealing with this problem before we have a Greece on our hands?

Update: Tapper updates his post with quotes from another government official who says they’re not sure when — or even if — the downgrade will come.

Update: It goes without saying that between the downgrade and polling showing 60+% support for tax increases on the rich, the GOP will be under intense pressure during the Super Committee phase to add some new revenue to the package. That doesn’t necessarily mean tax hikes; it does necessarily mean tax reform, which might involve lower rates but many fewer loopholes. Krauthammer floats a few ideas about that today, starting with getting rid of the mortgage interest deduction.

Update: Greg Pollowitz of NRO notes that, if the downgrade happens, the U.S. will technically be a greater credit risk than Britain, Germany, and France. Given the debt contagion spreading in Europe first from Greece and now Italy and Spain, does anyone seriously believe that’s true?

Update: No idea yet if this is the truth or White House spin, but if S&P actually botched its analysis on a matter as explosive and closely watched as this, then whatever’s left of their credibility is gone for good:

A third official says that S&P made a “serious mistake” in its analysis, “based on flawed math and assumptions,” so the Obama administration is pushing back. But even though “S&P has acknowledged its numbers are wrong, it’s unclear what they’re going to do.,” the official said.

S&P refused to comment.

Update: You’ve got to be kidding: “S+P was set to downgrade. Obama admin. said their analysis off by ‘trillions’. Now S+P revising figures. Downgrade still poss.”

Update: Still waiting for S&P’s side of this, but if the White House was lying in accusing them of a trillion-dollar error, you’d expect vehement pushback. Instead, silence.

Standard & Poor’s told the U.S. government Friday afternoon that it was preparing to downgrade the U.S.’s triple-A credit rating but U.S. officials notified the S&P that they had made a mathematical error that was off by “trillions,” an administration source told CNBC.

Apparently the error was in the calculation of the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio over time and was based on a misreading of what the correct congressional baseline was…

An S&P spokesman declined to comment on any possible plans for a downgrade or statement later Friday.

If it’s true, they’ll never recover. They’ve barely recovered from the subprime mess as it is. Then again, it could be that their math is fine and the White House is simply challenging them on a conceptual point, much like how Dems and the GOP argued this week over what tax baseline is appropriate for the Super Committee. In that case it wouldn’t be a math error, it’d be an accounting dispute.

A question from Megan McArdle, though: Who leaked this report? She wonders if the White House might have done it “just to get people yelling at the GOP,” but if that were true, why is the White House pressing so hard to get S&P change its numbers? It’s hard to yell at the GOP when the math is wrong.

Update: The Journal describes it as a “mathematical error” and claims S&P copped to it privately:

After two hours of analysis, Treasury officials discovered that S&P officials had miscalculated future deficit projections by close to $2 trillion. It immediately notified the company of the mistakes.

S&P officials later called administration officials back to say they agreed about the mistakes, though they didn’t say whether it would affect the rating. White House officials remained waiting Friday evening to see what the company would do…

A downgrade by S&P could serve as a psychological haymaker for an American economic recovery that can’t find much traction. It could lead to the prompt downgrades of numerous companies and states, driving up their costs of borrowing. Policymakers are also feeling anxious about the hidden icebergs that the move could suddenly reveal.

Imagine if this had happened during trading hours.